Bearish Sentiments

I need to wake up in five hours but I'm too restless to fall asleep. I had a 12-hour workday today, but I still mustered to hit the treadmill for some cardio exercise. Big day tomorrow. I am tired and I need some rest. But I couldn’t.

For the first time in two weeks I stopped the rhythm. I was on fire. I was getting everything I need. I felt like this is exactly where I want to be, figured everything is exactly what I would have hoped for in the past. But for a split-second it wasn’t. I sighed. And I knew there was something wrong when I shed some tears while watching Mr. Big down on his knees, offering a diamond-clad 500-dollar shoe asking Carrie Bradshaw to marry him.

At that moment I felt like I should just let go. Stop pretending that everything is okay when really, it isn’t. I know I am tough—but deep inside this armor, the warrior is a child. And yes, I do look like one, but the point is like the Gary V song, most people don’t know that I come running home when I fall down. Maybe I should, maybe being EMO for a second wasn’t such a bad idea after all.

Tomorrow morning I’ll wake up feeling better. I know I’ll regain my strides. I know I’ll be fine. But tonight I am not. Tonight I am scared. Tonight I have to admit that this self-wallowing is gratifying. This is the price I have to pay so I can feel better tomorrow.

It’s like the share prices in the stock market. It’s going to correct at a certain point because it’s too high already, that it’s only artificial. Maybe I am like that. I am feeling high about the fact that I love everything that’s happening to me now. Well, ok: most—not everything. But still, this moment is my correction period. My way of telling myself to take it easy because you’ll get that TP (target price) in time. But now you just have to be contented with being traded at a discount.

But I can’t wait to outperform the market. My gut feel tells me the potential upside is limitless. 

"Incepted"

Dreams feel real while we're in them. It's only when we wake up that we realize something was actually strange. -Cobb

I just saw one of the best films in recent memory over the weekend. And it’s about dreams. Poetic justice. Great for this blog. Great for any blog. Just great. This will be my first movie review post for this blog. Rightfully so. Inception is wicked. And we’ve never seen anything like it.

Christopher Nolan has done it again. He has done it big time.. The man behind titles like Insomnia, The Prestige, Batman Begins, and The Dark Knight clearly lived up to his name, leaving critics and movie enthusiasts delighted. Inception is well written—well thought of—and the very concept in which Nolan creates this masterpiece is timeless. It’s a constant interplay of dreams and realities that stretches our imagination.  It’s a depiction of how our brains work on an idea. Brains can work exponentially fast that a second can mean a lifetime; brains are more powerful than we can ever imagine. Inception infers that a dream is not just random things, but every dream embodies how we think and, ultimately, who we really are.

The plot is deep, and it clearly is not for everyone to appreciate, nay, understand. My take on this may be a whole lot different from yours. Maybe that’s the point. It's a debate.

For me, the fact that an idea transcends from a dream makes a lot of sense. We can never change, even when we are asleep. What we think about while we are sleeping may also reflect who we really are. It’s not a choice… it is our nature. And to even consider that we can invade someone else’s mind (and identity) and change it to something we want him to be (without coercion, meaning effectively it’s his own idea, his own thoughts and free will) is a very powerful thought. It’s like an advanced hypnotism.  It is genius.

The cinematography is very Nolan-like. You can see his signature from all over the place; to name a few: the dark-yellow-red-black-gray hue, the semi-stable camera pan, and the constant music filler backdrop—these can be seen in his works in the past. Speaking of music and original score, award-winning Hans Zimmer delivered once again (Zimmer’s resume includes: Sherlock Holmes, Angels & Demons, The Dark Knight, King Arthur, The Last Samurai, Black Hawk Down, Pearl Harbor, Gladiator, even Madagascar, The Prince of Egypt and Lion King). Nolan’s choice of camera angles is phenomenal, and I think the editors did a good job of putting it all up together. The set looked great, and the effects very down-to-earth (ok, not literally, but I think all of it looked very believable). The split-second shots (especially the one in the van) were a thing of beauty. My favorite part was when Joseph Gordon-Levitt et al were doing “space-shuttle-like” maneuvers. Jaw-dropping scenes. The set/locations are fantastic. It felt like a classic.

And then there is the Nolan twist. He did it in The Prestige (Christian Bale’s character had a twin) and The Dark Knight (game theory-esque social experiment by the Joker and the irony of Batman being a dark knight). Inception is possible because Cobb (Leo DiCaprio) did it before. And Nolan used advanced technology in all three movies as well. In The Prestige, the Tesla Coil; in The Dark Knight, the sonar visuals, and in Inception, the “dream machine.” He knows how to stretch imaginations and successfully create subplots.

I also concede that the cast is phenomenal. It’s given that Leo DiCaprio is classic. As always, every new role is a nice addition to his repertoire. Joseph Gordon-Levitt widens his acting perspective. And I tell you, he’s still rising—probably to replicate “10 Things” co-star Heath Ledger’s success (looks like a thinner version of him too).  Ellen Page acted like a veteran, reminiscent of her role in the wildly successful Juno. The Last Samurai Ken Watanabe is also a natural. The supporting cast also delivered: the Katy Perry-look-alike Marion Cottilard (my friend pointed out that Joseph Gordon-Levitt paired up with 2 Katy Perrys already, the first in 500 Days of Summer); Michael Caine’s role wasn’t big, but he’s Michael Caine nonetheless; Cillian Murphy’s look is still mysterious and I could see why he fits his role in this; the others are also great.

The only trouble for me in this movie is you have to see it at least three times to understand all the meanings, the little subplots and symbolisms that surround every act. It’s a lot to swallow for a relaxing Sunday night. Inception is not for those looking for a quick fix. This movie puts everything into question; while at the same time it pushes your mind’s limits. You really have to think; think hard and over and over. And because we have to do that for 145 minutes, some may tap out. This is not for everyone.

I’ve never written a biased movie review before. I always had to say something strange, something incomplete—something about the movie that disappointed me. Maybe I should watch again to see it. But like most people, I was blown away by this masterpiece. I think Christopher Nolan did a really good job, and he’s becoming one of the few directors who can pull off a constant string of near-perfect movies. And you don’t have to understand it to appreciate it (I think I need to watch it at least four times :))

For me, the one true selling point in Inception lies in its theme: that dreams make you who you are; that thoughts are part of reality; that there is a chance, no matter how small, that you might just transcend that thought into reality.  I may not get all of meanings at this point (and maybe I am wrong) but I think it’s very inspiring.  Five stars definitely.

Shattered Dream

What happens when your hopes and dreams are just a stone throw away? It’s like in marathons, it feels good to finally see the finish line; all you have to do is sprint the last mile… until your legs give up on you. You end up on a stretcher. This is not what I had in mind.

So how does it feel to lose everything you’ve worked for, everything you have? Painful. Tell me about it. It’s like dislocating your shoulders, over-sunburn-ing your back, removing your third molar, having hemorrhoids. It feels like those things combined and more. It feels like a terrible migraine. It’s like burning at the stake, cutting off your fingers, losing your eyes... I can’t really explain. I just know I don’t want to be in that situation… ever.

But shit happens right?

No matter how much we deny it, it’s there. No matter how much we avoid it, it’s there in front of us. No matter how much we try to conceal it, it’s not going to go away. Pain. Suffering. Misery. All part of what we feel when we lose a dream. When we lose a real dream. When we lose everything. When we are so close to the thing we long for, yet a breath too far. We are shattered. I hate that feeling. We all do. But shit happens. All the time.

We blame ourselves for not trying hard enough. For not being able to make the final move. The extra mile. For not making it. Yes, we need countless efforts to achieve those goals. We need to provide 100% commitment, combining it with skills and talents, history, pride, determination, perseverance, and the sheer will to succeed—whether in business, in career, in education, in relationships, or in life. But sometimes, most of the time, those are just not enough.

Maybe shit happens for a reason. Maybe the price we have to pay is not enough. We really can’t afford those dreams at this circumstance. Or maybe, it’s just not for us. What do I have to pay to reach those dreams? It’s attainable. I came so darn close. But it’s not for me?

We can all pretend all we want. Pretend that maybe there is a reason why runners come short of finishing the marathon, or why some advertising pitches don’t sell, or why love isn’t enough to save a relationship, or why shooting stars always fail to hit the earth. Dreams shattered. Maybe there is a reason. Whatever.

It doesn’t matter. Because we’re miserable and we can’t handle the truth.

The Economics Behind LeBron James’ Decision

I woke up this morning. Did my thing and browsed through news channels—CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg. NYSE is already closed, but there are plenty of talks about the European economy, British Petroleum, China’s currency peg, inflation rates and the rather bleak US employment data—all bound to affect the stock market and economies all over the world. But none of those have such effect on emotional investors than the LEBRON JAMES DECISION. LBJ pollutes the Bloomberg news as if he's the newly elected President of the United States; as if he brings the news that the stock market is about to crash big time.

For those who don’t know a thing about basketball, LeBron James is one of the best ballers (probably the best in the world currently, arguably the most solid and most sought after athlete in the NBA) who ever existed.  He was drafted in 2003 by the Cleveland Cavaliers and for seven years, LeBron tried hard to win a championship. His contract expired this year, and together with top NBA “free-agents” Dwanye Wade and Chris Bosh, LeBron wanted to go to a team with nothing less than a title in mind. He announced today that he is joining Wade and Bosh in Miami. And suddenly, NBA teams felt the Goosebumps.  Three of the best basketball athletes in the NBA today all in one team. Talk about your worst nightmare.  It’s like having an all-star game every night.

And Cleveland will not be very happy about it. Cleveland’s economy was non-existent, up until LeBron stole the show as a local who would finally change the course of Cleveland’s sports history (Cleveland is title-less in all the 4 major sports in the US). To put things into perspective, let me ask, what was Cleveland Cavaliers worth without LeBron? LeBron is worth so much to Cleveland that Forbes magazine estimates that the franchise’s overall value will drop $100 million if James bolts for greener pastures. That’s a 21% drop in team’s current net worth of $476 million.

People in Ohio are now burning LeBron’s jerseys. Disgusted. Depressed. Bitter. They should be. The golden boy, the “King” of NBA just left for greener pastures. And by greener pastures I mean not the money. LeBron will likely make the most bucks in New York or Cleveland, but he chose Miami because with Wade and Bosh, the NBA title is most likely to land in Miami. All roads point to Miami as NBA experts pick them as the early favorites to win the title in 2011. Probably in 2012 also. 2013. Why not?

I just hate it. But it doesn’t matter. LeBron pursued his dream to cement his legacy in the NBA. To be an NBA champ finally. He is probably on his way to do that. This is his first move. And it makes economic sense (at least for him, not the Miami Heat because now the team will have around $45-50 million in salaries committed to Wade-Bosh-James, and only less than $10 million for the remaining 12 rosters). Miami is his better alternative because of Wade and Bosh. New York, Chicago, New Jersey, Los Angeles and Cleveland made their pitches. But in the end, for LeBron, it’s all about the championship title.

This will be an interesting era in the NBA. Three of the best players in the NBA in one team. And these players are in their prime (mid-20s) unlike the “Big Three” in the Boston Celtics team (Allen-Pierce-Garnett are in their 30s when they came together). LeBron’s decision will surely have an impact on the future of the NBA, and the economies of the cities involved. Miami got the biggest share of the pie. But imagine if LeBron chose to join NY instead. I’m willing to bet the NASDAQ and the S&P will hit green in seconds.

I may think (feel) LeBron is gay for joining Miami. But it’s his decision. His $15-20 million. It's his life. His shot at the title. I could have even done the same if given a chance. Geeeezzz. Anything for legacy huh? Giving up his big ego for a bigger EGO. That’s the economics of his decision. Good luck to the other teams in the NBA.

Of Dreams and Skyscrapers

Lunchtime, Saturday. I was eating lunch at the second floor of a Ministop store in Bonifacio Global City. As I indulge in Ministop's Chicken meal (seriously, everyone should try Ministop's chicken recipe, it's like Jollibee's Chicken Joy, only bigger and cheaper), I realized I wasn't too hard to please. I had my first rice meal for the week, and this day was supposed to be my "cheat day." This time I can practically eat everything I want without feeling guilty about it, to savor/celebrate the efforts I made all week to deprive myself of rice and gluttony. And I did it with a 70-peso chicken meal from Ministop. Got a book to read and a magnificent view of a spurring city. What else can I ask for? (well, I could have chosen to eat elsewhere but with no one to share a Saturday lunch with right now, why even bother? besides, I might have saved myself some serious bucks because of this)

As I enjoy my meal (eyes wide shut, literally finger-licking the juiciness of the chicken drumstick, gravy sauce dripping from my mouth---I ate like a pig!), I looked at the glass windows.

I marvel at the buildings in front of me. I marvel at developments, skyscrapers, and real estate--while dreaming about concrete, steel rebars, aluminum cladding, and stone walls. I should have been an architect. It occurred to me that I wanted to build something. Something tangible. Something big. Something that will be a lasting legacy of my existence. I bet, these thoughts occurred to the real estate tycoons of our times. Andrew Tan, Manny Villar, John Gokongwei, Henry Sy, and the Ayala clan. Real estate in the Philippines is all about legacy. Track record. Reputation. Stature. Landmarks. And I find all these fascinating. I always find the real estate industry very fascinating. 

Being in this industry for two years taught me many things. Some important. Some are self-explanatory. But I do know one thing: it takes a lot to build successful real estate empires. You can't just be a billionaire and start being successful in real estate. You should create VALUE for properties. It's one thing to have the perfect location, but it is more important to maximize the potential of a property. You can have a mediocre property, but you can make it matter in a heartbeat. Just create VALUE. This is what Bonifacio Global City taught us. Less than two decades ago, BGC was an old military property. All 200 hectares of it. Sold to private corporations who developed the masterplan for one of the (currently) most prime locations in Metro Manila.

BGC's size is almost identical to Makati CBD. But the pace of development in BGC is something we haven't seen in the Philippines before. Makati took three decades to build all those skyscrapers and concrete jungles. BGC is just a decade old. Approximately 70 buildings, 120 offices, 10,000 condominium units, 300 retail-food-service shops, dozens of institutional locators, and thousands of employee population later, BGC's value went from 30,000 per square meter to almost 200,000 per square meter. Obviously, BGC created its own VALUE.

Value is the price of success in real estate development. You can have all the money in the world; but if your property does not have value, it's not going to happen for you. This is what fascinates me about the property sector... Success here is a combination of money, guts, and creating value. That's why the smartest tycoons are successful in property; they know how to create value in property. 

I am amazed at how BGC became the sought-after location in Metro Manila when ten years ago this piece of real estate can be deemed barren... full of grass and small animal species. I was savoring the last bite of that chicken meal and I realized I love this place. I love development. I love potentials and success. In real estate. I think it's fascinating because it's tangible. It can be admired. Developments are welcome changes. A sight for sore eyes. BGC is a city that has successfully created its own value in such a short time. You can obviously see, feel, touch, taste the success of BGC. In essence, BGC leaped. It overtook other spurring districts in Metro Manila--Ortigas Center, Eastwood City, Alabang, Quezon City. 

BGC created value. changed perspectives. Rattled conventions. Exploited opportunities.

Hmmmmmmm. Sounds familiar?

Yes. Because these things are common to success. I realized as I looked at the glass window that there's no specific formula for different kinds of success. It's all the same. LEAP. Creating value to every opportunity given to you. All the talents. All the money/or even the lack of it. Be creative. Adopt. Think out of the box. Defy all conventions. Be bold. These pep-talks are far from wrong. They are battle cries. Because no matter how cliche those words are, they might be just the things we need to win. To succeed. 

Real estate taught me so many things in a short period of time. And I know success in real estate is very measurable. And by all means, believe me, creating value is the key to success. And it's darn hard to create value using concrete, steel rebars, aluminum cladding and stone walls. Just like it's hard to eat rice just once a week. Just like it's hard to settle for Ministop lunch over gourmet food. Just like it's hard to perfect a chicken recipe. Just like it's hard to build a successful career. Just like it's hard to be successful in life. 

I may not be an architect who builds skyscrapers. I may never be a real estate tycoon (fingers still crossed: my exposure to real estate makes me really hopeful that someday I will be) who spends billions to build office towers and residential condominiums. But I am building my own life as we speak. I may not grow tall anymore (God knows how badly I want to), but my life grows everyday. Whether I like it or not, I am building my own skyscraper, adding to the skyline our ancestors provided for us. BGC is my inspiration. I want to build myself fast. I want to be sought after. I want my life to be priceless--like all lives should be. Yes. I am here to build my own skyscraper-life. It's going to be a landmark.

Wow. All these thoughts over a Ministop chicken meal? Imagine what I could have thought of while eating an angus-beef steak or a Chilean sea bass. 

Plan B

About eight months ago, I decided that I wanted to get an MBA. I want to get it fast. I felt the window of opportunity was going to be open for this year only. Why? I was at the crossroads of my career--planning to either continue doing what I did for the past two years or finally switch to a new industry. I would want to settle down in a couple of years, start a family and be financially independent. So it's got to be now...

But what pressed me the most to do the MBA was my genuine desire to improve my career through business education.  I mean look at the CEOs and directors of big companies. Harvard, Wharton, Stanford, Columbia. Ivy League. Stone-brick walls and hollow halls. On the other side of the Atlantic, London Business School, INSEAD, IESE, IMD. I want those. It became an instant dream, a dream that I honestly think I can actually go for.

I did. And I had only one school in mind. IESE Business School - University of Navarre in Barcelona, Spain. Arguably one of the top B-schools in the world (at least according to The Economist, Financial Times, and the BusinessWeek). Story short, I got ACCEPTED and have been OFFERED a slot in this year's MBA class (more on this on later posts). 

But I'm not going. 

Instead, in a sudden twist of fate, I am opting for Plan B. A career shift. Giving up my current job for another. Only this time, it's ten times harder, a hundred times more challenging, and a thousand times more stressful. This is great. Giving up a life in a fishbowl with Flounder and Nemo for a (non)life in a shark tank. Well, not really. At least that's what I think this is. 

So what really happened here? I gave up one dream to reach another. And now I realize there are too many dreams to choose from. This is typical. WE ALL WANT IT ALL don't we? This is our nature. But in reality we can only have one dream at a time. You have to choose which ones to reach first. We all have to choose which one. I'm not saying I can't do the MBA in IESE anymore, but I right now I have chosen this dream. A dream of finding a career that is just right, something that will challenge me to new heights, something that will maximize my talents, my potential, my gifts from God. A dream of fulfillment that's beyond monetary needs...

(Okay, not really. Who am I kidding. Money is and has always been part of it. But I'd like to think it isn't so.)

So Plan B happened. And it was a difficult decision. I've invested so much money and emotion into getting the MBA this year. But I have a strong feeling I won't regret this. My gut feel says I'm going to be fine. It's going to be fabulous. It's going to be legend--wait for it--ary (borrowed from Barney Stinson). And I can't wait to start my new career in a few weeks. I am excited! And I felt vindicated when I saw the look on my Boss's face when I told him I'm packing. He smiled as if saying "you did the right thing and I wish you the best of luck." (at least I'm hopeful he really felt this way) I was so relieved. 

In economics, there is such a thing as the "second best choice." When the best choice is not available, the second best choice is of course your best bet. But it doesn't mean you're settling. It just means under the current circumstances you are in, the second best fits the bill. 

For me, both choices--MBA or a career change (in a field I have been in the past few years hopeful to be in)--are great. I guess you can call it a win-win situation since it's not really that bad if I turned out to be successful in this upcoming career; or if I turned out to be ok after the MBA. But it is what it is, I have made my decision although I still (day)dream about Barcelona and the best B-school in the world... I came so close to reaching that dream. 

You see? This crossroads of dreams I encountered over the first six months of this year posted economic problems for me. How do I choose what's right for me? How do I know if this is the right choice? How do I know what will benefit me the most--short term and long term? What do I have to pay to achieve those dreams?

It seems to me that the most glaring price to pay for reaching one dream is to give up the other... at least for now. Then there comes effort, prudence, patience, and what-have-you's. In a few weeks I will start a new career. In a few months I will find out just how much I will have to give more. In a few years I will definitely find out if all of this is worth it. But no regrets. 

Now I'm here, where soon I will be swimming in unfamiliar (and possibly treacherous) waters. I will try to stay afloat. I will try to outswim those sea monsters. And something tells me I'm going to pull off a Michael Phelps.

UBUNTU: Success in the NBA

Measuring SUCCESS is very relative. For some it’s being able to afford Hermés bags, Chopard watches, or a sporty BMW M3 (guilty here). For some, it’s being at the helm of a multinational company; for some it’s simply educating and helping people (hats tip to Efren Peñaflorida); for some (like Philippine president-elect Homer Simpson Noynoy Aquino) it’s winning a presidential election… although this I strongly oppose… who, in his right mind would want to head a country like the Philippines—facing trillions of dollars in foreign debt, PhP300 Billion budget deficit, at least 20 million Filipinos starving, while basically earning a measly PhP60,000 a month in direct salary. Well, unless you count access to more than USD20 Billion of tax revenue each year as a measurement of success. But that’s another story.

For my NBA team—Boston Celtics—it’s nothing less than winning a title. For Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, it was a dream three years ago. But as part of the Celtics team they became champions in 2008, not because they were athletic but they worked as a team. The price of living that elusive dream to be NBA champs is giving up statistics, individualism, stardom—in other words, giving up individual EGOs to establish a COLLECTIVE EGO. The price of being called “champs,” is working as a team. In the 2010 NBA season, that’s what they tried to be. (Flashback: In 2009, Kevin Garnett, the team’s defensive pillar injured himself in the second half of the season, so go figure what happened to their campaign that year)

Coach Doc Rivers called the Celtics to be a TEAM. He adopted the African philosophy of UBUNTU—which focuses on people’s allegiances and relations to each other, emphasizing compassion and humanity. The Boston Celtics became the UBUNTU team with only one common goal: to win. Feared, envied, and most of the time hated by other teams in the NBA. The team’s mantra that was posted in the locker rooms read, “Individuals win games; Teams win titles.” It was an inspiring quote, something MBA schools can use to teach aspiring tycoons, or something generals can shout about as battle cry to their troops in war.

So what happened?

Unless you’re not into the NBA like my Scottish colleague who thinks basketball is boring, you know that the L.A. Lakers won the 2010 NBA Title. The NBA’s most storied franchises—Celtics and Lakers—make up one of the most famous (arch) rivalries in sports and they have 33 NBA championships between them. The Lakers won in 2009 and they still have Kobe Bryant who is by far the best baller in the world. Of course they were expected to win again this year. They did. But the story is not about them. It’s about a mediocre team (4th seed in the East) whom most people predicted to be out in the early rounds of the playoffs. It’s about that UBUNTU Celtics team who faced none other than the Lakers in the NBA Finals.

The Cinderella story didn’t end with a parade celebration in downtown Boston for the Celtics’ unprecedented 18th NBA title. But it was UBUNTU that brought them six minutes or five points away from that. Boston knocked out three heavyweights on its way to face the Lakers in the Finals. Three of NBA’s best players—Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard—and their teams all went down against the Celtics. How? Teamwork. It was beautiful to watch.

LeBron (King) James cannot carry his team alone, and this is the lesson these Celtics taught the world. Success, no matter how impossible, can be achieved with the proper mindset. For basketball, it is teamwork. Kobe Bryant scored 38 points in Game 5 of the Finals but they lost. Boston’s team had six players scoring at least 10 points in that game. That, my friends, is called teamwork. This is why other NBA teams are jealous of the UBUNTU: no other team is even close to resembling the level where these Boston Celtics compete when they are at their best. This philosophy was so strong that despite all the difficulties they faced all season, they remained resilient against the best teams in the NBA. It all paid off.

A lot of things went wrong in the last 15 minutes of the do-or-die Game 7 of the NBA Finals when the Celtics played poorly and the Lakers played like champs. But these Celtics already proved their point all along. No one picked them as the eastern conference champs; no one believed they could give the Lakers a challenge; no one expected them to live past Lebron and Dwight. UBUNTU did it. That’s what it really takes to win. That is the price of winning in the NBA.

In November, we might see a very different Celtics team, with some of its pieces new, and some old pieces replaced. But I believe their mindset will again take them to places no one expected them to reach. They will try to be champs again; most likely they will fail again. But I’m not betting against their chances. Because they have what it takes to win a title.

Success is relative… and with UBUNTU, to me this team succeeded.

Caveat: The author is obviously a Celtics fan.